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Toth DJA, Khader K, Beams A, Samore MH. Model-based Assessment of the Effect of Contact Precautions Applied to Surveillance-detected Carriers of Carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae in Long-term Acute Care Hospitals. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. 2019 Sep 13; 69(Supplement_3):S206-S213.
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Abstract: BACKGROUND: An intervention that successfully reduced colonization and infection with carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) in Chicago-area long-term acute-care hospitals included active surveillance and contact precautions. However, the specific effects of contact precautions applied to surveillance-detected carriers on patient-to-patient transmission are unknown, as other, concurrent intervention components or changes in facility patient dynamics also could have affected the observed outcomes. METHODS: Using previously published data from before and after the CPE intervention, we designed a mathematical model with an explicit representation of postintervention surveillance. We estimated preintervention to postintervention changes of 3 parameters: , the baseline transmission rate excluding contact precaution effects; b, the rate of a CPE carrier progressing to bacteremia; and c, the progression rate to nonbacteremia clinical detection. RESULTS: Assuming that CPE carriers under contact precautions transmit carriage to other patients at half the rate of undetected carriers, the model produced no convincing evidence for a postintervention change in the baseline transmission rate (+2.1% [95% confidence interval {CI}, -18% to +28%]). The model did find evidence of a postintervention decrease for b (-41% [95% CI, -60% to -18%]), but not for c (-7% [95% CI, -28% to +19%]). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that contact precautions for surveillance-detected CPE carriers could potentially explain the observed decrease in colonization by itself, even under conservative assumptions for the effectiveness of those precautions for reducing cross-transmission. Other intervention components such as daily chlorhexidine gluconate bathing of all patients and hand-hygiene education and adherence monitoring may have contributed primarily to reducing rates of colonized patients progressing to bacteremia.

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