Reducing opioid use disorder and overdose deaths in the United States: A dynamic modeling analysis.

Stringfellow EJ, Lim TY, Humphreys K, DiGennaro C, Stafford C, Beaulieu E, Homer J, Wakeland W, Bearnot B, McHugh RK, Kelly J, Glos L, Eggers SL, Kazemi R, Jalali MS. Reducing opioid use disorder and overdose deaths in the United States: A dynamic modeling analysis. Science advances. 2022 Jun 24; 8(25):eabm8147.

Related HSR&D Project(s)

• RCS 04-141 – Evaluating Treatment & Self-help Methods of Improving Functioning & Quality of Life Outcomes of Patients with Substance Abuse Disorders

Dimensions for VA is a web-based tool available to VA staff that enables detailed searches of published research and research projects.

If you have VA-Intranet access, click here for more information vaww.hsrd.research.va.gov/dimensions/

VA staff not currently on the VA network can access Dimensions by registering for an account using their VA email address.    Search Dimensions for VA for this citation
* Don't have VA-internal network access or a VA email address? Try searching the free-to-the-public version of Dimensions

Search for Abstract from PubMed

---

Abstract:

Opioid overdose deaths remain a major public health crisis. We used a system dynamics simulation model of the U.S. opioid-using population age 12 and older to explore the impacts of 11 strategies on the prevalence of opioid use disorder (OUD) and fatal opioid overdoses from 2022 to 2032. These strategies spanned opioid misuse and OUD prevention, buprenorphine capacity, recovery support, and overdose harm reduction. By 2032, three strategies saved the most lives: (i) reducing the risk of opioid overdose involving fentanyl use, which may be achieved through fentanyl-focused harm reduction services; (ii) increasing naloxone distribution to people who use opioids; and (iii) recovery support for people in remission, which reduced deaths by reducing OUD. Increasing buprenorphine providers' capacity to treat more people decreased fatal overdose, but only in the short term. Our analysis provides insight into the kinds of multifaceted approaches needed to save lives.