Assessment of intermediate-term mortality following pancreatectomy for cancer.

Janczewski LM, Visenio MR, Joung RH, Yang AD, Odell DD, Danielson EC, Posner MC, Skolarus TA, Bentrem DJ, Bilimoria KY, Merkow RP. Assessment of intermediate-term mortality following pancreatectomy for cancer. Journal of the National Cancer Institute. 2025 Jan 1; 117(1):49-57.

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Abstract:

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic cancer remains highly lethal, and resection represents the only chance for cure. Although patients are counseled regarding short-term (0-3?months) mortality, little is known about mortality 3-6?months (intermediate-term) following surgery. We assessed predictors of intermediate-term mortality, evaluated hospital-level variation, and developed a nomogram to predict intermediate-term mortality risk. METHODS: Patients undergoing pancreatic cancer resection were identified from the National Cancer Database (2010-2020). Multivariable logistic regression identified predictors of intermediate-term mortality and assessed differences between short-term and intermediate-term mortality. Multinomial regression grouped by intermediate-term mortality quartiles evaluated hospital-level variation. A neural network model was constructed to predict intermediate-term mortality risk. All statistical tests were 2-sided. RESULTS: Of 45?297 patients, 3974 (8.9%) died within 6 months of surgery of which 2216 (5.1%) were intermediate-term. Intermediate-term mortality was associated with increasing T category, positive nodes, lack of systemic therapy, and positive margins (all P < .05) compared with survival beyond 6 months. Compared with short-term mortality, intermediate-term mortality was associated with treatment at high-volume hospitals, positive nodes, neoadjuvant systemic therapy, adjuvant radiotherapy, and positive margins (all P? < .05). Median intermediate-term mortality rate per hospital was 4.5% (interquartile range [IQR] = 2.6-6.5). Highest quartile hospitals had decreased odds of treatment with neoadjuvant systemic therapy, neoadjuvant radiotherapy, and adjuvant radiotherapy (all P < .05). The neural network nomogram was highly accurate (accuracy = 0.9499; area under the receiver operating characteristics curve = 0.7531) in predicting individualized intermediate-term mortality risk. CONCLUSION: Nearly 10% of patients undergoing pancreatectomy for cancer died within 6 months, of which one-half occurred in the intermediate term. These data have real-world implications to improve shared decision making when discussing curative-intent pancreatectomy.