» Back to list of all Management eBriefs
|Issue 48||March 2012|
A Systematic Review: Risk Prediction Models for Hospital Readmission
Predicting hospital readmission rates is of great interest, both to identify which patients would benefit most from care transition interventions and to standardize readmission risk rates for purposes of comparisons of hospital quality. This systematic review was performed to synthesize the available literature on validated readmission risk prediction models, describe their performance, and assess their suitability for clinical or administrative use. Investigators at the Evidence-based Synthesis Program Center, Portland, OR, conducted a review of the literature from database inception through March 2011.
After reviewing nearly 8,000 citations, 30 studies (23 were based on U.S. healthcare data; 4 used VA data) of 26 unique models met the inclusion criteria. Studies that focused on psychiatric, surgical, and pediatric populations were excluded because factors contributing to readmission risk might be very different in these patient groups. For each of the 30 studies used in this review, investigators assessed: population characteristics, setting, number of patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, outcomes from use of medical services, readmission rate, range of readmission rates according to predicted risk, and ability of models to discriminate between patients who were subsequently readmitted and those who were not. Fourteen models used retrospective administrative data that could potentially be used for hospital comparisons. The remainder incorporated more detailed clinical and administrative data collected from chart review, primary data collection, or the electronic health record. The most common outcome used was 30-day readmission.
Findings of this systematic review include:
Suggestions for Future Research
This report is a product of VA/HSR&D's Quality Enhancement Research Initiative's (QUERI) Evidence-Based Synthesis Program (ESP), which was established to provide timely and accurate synthesis of targeted healthcare topics of particular importance to VA managers and policymakers - and to disseminate these reports throughout VA.
Please feel free to forward this information to others!
This Management eBrief is a product of the VA/HSR&D Quality Enhancement Research Initiative (QUERI) Evidence Synthesis Program (ESP). ESP is currently soliciting review topics from the broader VA community. Nominations will be accepted electronically using the online Topic Submission Form. If your topic is selected for a synthesis, you will be contacted by an ESP Center to refine the questions and determine a timeline for the report.
This Management e-Brief is provided to inform you about recent HSR&D findings that may be of interest. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position or policy of the Department of Veterans Affairs. If you have any questions or comments about this Brief, please email CIDER. The Center for Information Dissemination and Education Resources (CIDER) is a VA HSR&D Resource Center charged with disseminating important HSR&D findings and information to policy makers, managers, clinicians, and researchers working to improve the health and care of Veterans.
See all reports online.