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HERC Health Economics Seminar

Using Systems Modeling to Evaluate the Impact of the New York State HIV Testing Law

by Erika Martin, Ph.D., M.P.H.
Seminar date: 3/20/2013

Description: Systems modeling can be a useful supplement to policy evaluation. A recent New York law requires medical providers to offer HIV tests as part of routine care. We developed a system dynamics simulation model to supplement the health department’s policy evaluation. After calibrating the model to New York data, we conducted counterfactual analyses of short- and long-term outcomes under alternate implementation scenarios. As designed, the new law may result in averted HIV infections and a reduction in the fraction of undiagnosed cases, although it will not eliminate the epidemic. Even though new infections will decline, the number of individuals in care will remain relatively constant due to the survival benefits of antiretroviral therapy, highlighting the importance of continued funding for HIV care.

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